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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:48 pm

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 19, 2018



The euro declined once again during the Thursday session after its bullish sentiment in the beginning. Yet, there is an important support level below which may be just for a short period of time. However, the shooting star pattern below drove the pair lower which something to get worried off. Hence, it is wise to wait on the sidelines, looking for a supportive candle or any bounce to make use of the support.

If the pair breaks lower than 1.1450 on the 4-hour chart, selling can be an option especially if it closes below it. Overall, we can be just grinding and taking a hint on the next move. There are various things to worry about such as the Brexit, the Italian crisis to name a few. Yet, traders should also keep their eye on the Treasury yields for the 10-year T-note from the US. It implies that the greenback can trade and take advantage of this situation with higher interest rate but would be not so good for the euro.

Volatility will present and then trades should be kept at small positions in case a successful breakout of the shooting star and then move further to 1.1530. Hence, there can be a drive to the upper channel and move towards 1.16.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:50 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 22, 2018



The euro major pair bounced up after a decline as it moved towards the support level of 1.1531and closed higher on Friday. However, there is a tendency for the pair to face risk and move higher in short-term. A bullish sentiment was established in the outside-day around the level of 1.1432 on Friday, indicating the pullback has stopped from the October 16 high at 1.1622. The European Union tries to lessen the deficit on budget expansion proposal and further strengthen the common currency on Friday. The European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said tension can be lessened through constructive conversations after the recent warning letter on criticizing fiscal plans of Italy.

The pair was able to find some sufficient support near the monthly lows at the area of 1.1435-30 and rose for almost 100 pips as a major part of weekly losses. The currency was further strengthened because of the dollar but lost some momentum after the rhetorics of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. On the other hand, the market received the news on Italy with its stable outlook that puts a limit on any sudden decline.

There is not much fundamental news that could affect trading while investors look for news that could affect the currency rates amid Italy policy concerns and Brexit updates. Moodyís decision was less-than-expected of investors. Thus, a relief rally on Italian markets may take place today. In case the spread between the 10-year Italy and German yields lessened by 300 bps, this could push the euro major pair higher and break through the level of 1.1535. The resistance levels of the pair would be 1.1535, 1.1575 and 1.1600 and the support levels would be at 1.1463, 1.1432, and 1.1400.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:51 pm

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 24, 2018



The euro declined during the Tuesday session after the initial attempt of a rally. There is an important support level found below at 1.1450 and it seems that this will resume for some time, especially with all the activities happening in the European Union, we can anticipate testing this area will be around for a while.

After a rebound from the level of 1.1450, the euro dropped during the Wednesday session. This area has been significant previously. The price broke the level of 1.15 which seems to be acting as a resistance and a lot of things around the euro seems to be the problem. It could further go down when a fresh new low is broken. The current levels being tested are previously largely resistive in the past few months.

Retesting the current level resumes but a bit more weaker than a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the support continues to be tested and traders should monitor this level which will likely be significant. In case the price breaks higher than the recent high, it would probably head further north. For now, the price is likely to move to and fro because of the Italian debt and political problems surrounding EU. There is a chance to short this pair unless we buy on fresh short-term rallies.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:10 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 26, 2018



The euro major pair has broken the level of 1.1400 and dropped to a new monthly low at 1.1355 yesterday after the ECB monetary policy meeting yesterday. They intend to keep the rates unchanged, which is not surprising after their remarks. Draghi said that he has confidence on both parties with Italy will reach an agreement and said that further stimulus is needed after inflation which will likely gain momentum by the end of the year despite weak activity. The pair was seen to have recovered for a bit during Draghiís speech and reach as high as 1.1432 during the Asian market and headed towards 1.13. Currently, the pair is trading almost flat with a bearish tone as low as 1.1366 and declined by 0.07% on the day.

The European central bank confirmed of ending the asset purchase program in December despite the budget concerns of Italy, weak data output and Brexit deal negotiation. The euro did not pick up bid price after the Fed officials were not shaken the stock market was not shaken according to Fed vice chair, Richard Clarida, Thus, yield differentials are likely to further increase in favor of the greenback pair.

In regards to the situation of the trade war, a risk-off investor sentiment increases after the Chinese yuan declined to new 21-month low against the dollar, chances of a trade war between the US and China worsening. As fear in the market worsens, risky assets may lose their stand on the last trading session for the week.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:55 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 29, 2018



The euro major pair had a lot of bids on Friday amid the wide losses in the greenback. Yet, the technical analysis continues to be bearish in 5, 10 and 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and heads south. Similarly, the 14-day Relative strength index (RSI) and MACD continue to have a bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the stock markets continue to be on a defense today, putting a lot of bid for the dollar given the Shanghai Composite dropped by 1 percent in Asia. German Chancellor Merkel lost support in the Hesse elections, doubling the greens vote. As for the center-left threatened to leave the coalition.

The pair trading close to the flat level of 1.1395, dropping by 0.06% on the day. This is not good for the common currency given the weakness of Merkel as it limits the capacity of Brexit deal negotiation and with Italian budget crisis at hand. A strong bearish pressure is present after last week ended with a dovish sentiment. Hence, traders remained careful on the weekend. The European calendar remains to be subdued except for the recent publication of EU economic forecast and Finnish Consumer & Industrial confidence data. Nonetheless, these data are not likely to have a big impact on the trading activity.

The market anticipates the release of Core PCE Price index, PCE Deflector data and consumer spending data from the US which will bring volatility during the North American session. At the same time, expectations of Fed tightening was limited by the risk aversion in the US stocks that are anticipated to continue and appeals bidding for the EUR/USD pair.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:08 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 5, 2018



The euro major pair was strongly bid on Friday, taking advantage of the rising momentum because of the broad weakening of the US dollar amid lack of fundamental support but positive non-farm payrolls data. With the uncertainty caused by the US-China trade deal, the greenback was on the lead upon the opening of the trading session for the week. Most of the answers in the survey say that the Democrats will probably win back the house while the Republicans is highly likely to keep the Senate. Thus, Congress is still divided which is what the market anticipates.

The previous week ended in a downward trend following good two-way moves on Friday. It looks the price is set within the falling wedge pattern. In case of a Republican victory in both houses but it may require a fiscal stimulus while a breakout on falling wedge is still far from happening. However, a Democrat victory in both chambers may have an impact to the greenback and result to a falling wedge breakout and a change from bearish to bullish sentiment. As for today, the risk ahead by the midterm elections will probably keep the euro major pair in a flat line.

Furthermore, the reports from ECB add more pressure after another round of a long-term refinancing operation at LTRO, which in turn will support the European banks in the December meeting. Meanwhile, the problem on Italyís budget hasnít yet been resolved, as wells as, concerns on big sovereign debt holdings. There is no expected major economic report, therefore, the dollar will highly depend on the technical aspect prior to the release of the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI during the US trading session.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:20 pm

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 6, 2018



Unless an unexpected statement comes out, not much reaction is expected to the RBA statement. The focus will be centered on the inflation of RBA and growth forecast. We can also expect on chances for tightening of lending requirement which may raise concern for some policymakers.

The Australian currency looks to be trading flat shortly prior to the release of the central bank of Australia decision and once again, it is anticipated to keep the cash rate at 1.5 percent. At the same time, traders are hoping for the central bank to stay positive but still gives a neutral policy outlook.

Forecast of the RBA on the employment forecast is being sought after because of the recent decline to 5%, as mentioned by NAB. Meanwhile, only minor short-term changes to GDP forecasts are anticipated and keep the inflation rate of the RBA forecast to be the same.

Todayís report is significant but most of the investors will probably focus on the US midterm election this Tuesday.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:22 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2018



The euro major pair is a continuous changing across the Asian market session as US midterm elections would be on headlines. A steady support was found at the level of 1.14 but continues to move up and down with elections being the US headlines. A sudden decline occurred by 70 pips in early Asian market from highs of 1.1473 to 1.1398 with the probability of Democrats taking the lead and if Democrats win, the dollar will likely bounce off from a sudden decline. As of now, the Euro major pair is trading at 1.1463, gaining 0.33% on the day.

Most of the analysts, as well as investors, expect for a split result on the election, which resulted in the probability of the house majority to push through investigations of Trumpís administration ties with Russia and financial affair while the Republican Senate is struggling to pass any new major legislation Consequently, the pair turned within the range at 1.145 and anticipated to continue trading in a slow range price action until final results are announced. On the technical analysis, it seems that the euro major pair breaks through to exit a falling wedge, changing from a bearish to a bullish trend on the daily chart. Bullish patterns are executed between the 5-day and 10-day SMA, ascending 50-, 100-, and 200-hour SMAs. Higher lows are also achieved on the hourly and 4-hour chart and indicators are leaning on a bullish sentiment.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:27 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2018



The euro major pair faced a bearish drop after the result of split congress which is already anticipated by the market and momentum of the pair starting to become insufficient after the final outcome was announced. The Republicans kept the Senate and Democrats took the House. Although, House will probably pressure Trump concerning taxes whom he pledged to fight back with investigations being out. Meanwhile, the eurozone resulted in a positive macro data which had no impact on price action as momentum yesterday were dominated by the US elections results and the pair has had important gains. Yet, the US dollars recovered in the broad market during the Asian session, as well as late American hours following a major loss against euro yesterday.

There is a probability for the dollar to become dovish if the policy statement shows a sensitive reaction to the recent declines in the stock market. Looking at the technical perspective, the euro against the US dollar 25 delta risk reversals grew to -0.575, which was the peak since August 1. The means that the demand or the implied volatility premium for the cheaper money of euro is presently at the lowest in more than three months. The falling demand for the bearish bets of the euro would mean that investors are anticipating for a stronger recovery rally for the euro major pair. Meanwhile, the greenback starts to kick-off on the 4-hour and daily chart implying the bullish momentum to remain intact, demonstrated that price continues to move higher than the level of 1.14.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:37 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2018



The euro major pair has been moving steadily after the release of the FOMC report since there is a bearish pressure on both currencies. Aside from rising tensions in Europe, the hawkish sentiment remains with market expectations that adds pressure on the common currency. Various political tensions such as Brexit, tensions between Brussels and Rome are anticipated to heighten tension in the next few weeks, yet Brexit is likely to move in a sluggish pace. The issue between EU and Italy influence the spread between Italy and Germany to 300 bps. Other than that, the two major coalition partners in Italy proceeds to take action in limiting immigration that also affects the euro across markets.

These economic events limit the progress of the euro while in the US, uncertainty has pushed investors to side on the US-dominated assents and the greenback. The EUR/USD pair grew modestly after the release of the FOMC statement and rise to 1.1409. It declines immediately and broke the previous slows. The price declined below 1.1350 during the Asian trading session as the US central bank kept the funds' rate at 2.25% to 2.00. At the same time, the recent statement remained the same from the September meeting, providing a solid bullish support. Meanwhile, the Italian bond yields yesterday night after the EU commissionís forecast saying that Italy has undergone inadequate and partial analysis.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:11 pm

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 12, 2018



Brexit remains to be the center for todayís Asian session since UK Prime Minister Theresa May canceled the emergency meeting to approve the Brexit deal this week. The meeting was postponed but the resistance from the cabinet remains strong, added to Brussels concerns, which delays the Brexit talks and lessen the possibility of the expected meeting in November. In this case, the Sterling bulls are on the less favorable situation. Market hopes for a miracle to relieves the pressure amid the heavy headlines with the Brexit as the main concern over the weekend causing more tension in the market. It seems that the market declined by 0.46% from this morning price level of 1.2911.

There is no major economic event for the UK, hence, traders can expect for thin trading volumes given that there is less US money market for the long Thanksgiving weekend but Tuesday seems to offer UK Average Earnings and GBP/USD traders are looking for something an early event to the headlines prior to major economic data. The dollar was strengthened by last weekís gains and grew to a 16-month high on Monday as traders anticipate for the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policies and the bullish tone of the greenback with the ongoing Brexit talks to further escalate the bullish situation. As for the technical perspective, the implied volatility premium grew sharply while an increasing demand for the British pound puts a bearish pressure while traders are anticipating for a much bigger decline of the currency. The risk appetite has also lessened during the Asian trading session as the EUís situation worsened.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:59 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 13, 2018



The euro influenced the appreciation of greenback during Monday trading session with political uncertainty affecting the European market. The euro major pair dropped to 1.1239 soon after the opening of the London session in the background of tension with the Italian budget as rejected by the EU commission in the previous week. The Italian government submitted again a fiscal plan in correspondence with the EU rules and risk an economic sanction. Yet, it seems that there is no intent to change the budget. The pair is declining across the European and North American hours reaching a fresh 16-month low due to the bearish pressure from both sides of Atlantic.

Lack of progress in the Brexit negotiation adds pressure on the bearish tone to the common currency added to the Italian budget concerns. The White House also intends to reconsider auto tariffs against Europe which gives a dovish sentiment for the investors, further adding a bearish pressure to the common currency in the future. Reconsideration of tariffs on the European market despite ending it a few months after meeting between the US and Europe, which can be because of various reasons such as the global trade war and renewed Iran sanctions and criticism of ďAmerica firstĒ in the Trump administration.

There are bids for the EUR/USD pair in Asia and an optimistic view of the renews US-China trade. Yet, the change in budget still questions the Italy that could affect the spread between the high-spend budget to the European Union today will likely increase the spread between the Italian 10-year government bond yield and its German counterpart to the recent high of 325 basis points. Om case that market expectations. If Italy submitted an unchanged budget for euro, traders can anticipate the resumption of a bearish pressure. As for the fundamental data, investors are eyeing on the German CPI data scheduled today which is expected to remain the same. However, in case it turns out positive, this could drive momentum for a relief rally on the euro major pair.


Last edited by Obasi FXMart on Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:22 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2018



The euro major pair did not have an optimistic trading overnight with UK ministers exiting their roles attesting as a protest in the negotiation deal of Prime Minister Theresa May with the EU not meeting UKís electorate vote. Being against the authority of Theresa May raising uncertainty in the European politics that further raises the chance for the Brexit to be no deal that affects both economies. Nevertheless, the euro major pair rise despite higher forecast of 0.8% by the U.S. Census Bureau US retail sales data in October, higher than the 0.5% market expectation. Meanwhile, the action moves with the reversal on Wall Street that resulted in a rally of the euro and retreating of long yen as the EUR/JPY pair recovered.

Moreover, the greenback also received more bearish pressure after the profit taking on the trade talk news between the US and China, giving America the lead and raising risk appetite. Investors now wait for the speech from ECB president Draghi and a drive on strong bid can take place if Draghi is able to act on the Italy budget crisis and confirm plans on ending the QE program. If Draghi becomes heedful, the price may drop below 1.30 and bet on a delay of the rate hike in 2019. The Eurozone CPI data is anticipated to be released, as well as the data on Industrial production.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:20 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 19, 2018



The euro major pair retreated back higher than 1.14 level after the headlines on US President said to make a trade deal. Although no agreement has been set yet, which in turn, raised risk appetite with investors and kickstart momentum across the market on Friday last week. Thus, the pair gained 200 pips from the low level of 1.1215 on Monday and closed in favor of the euro and grew by 0.81% on the day.

It has been trading close to the Friday high at 1.14 at the beginning of the Asian session as investors became heedful following the dovish comments from edís newly appointed vice chair, Richard Clarida, saying a global economic slowdown is important for the US economic outlook and a similar to the interview from the Fed Dallas President Robert Kaplan who sees a slowdown in China and Europe. Nevertheless, analysts see this as an acceptable risk factor given that the Fed is reliant on rate hikes while the investors reacted to the dovish rhetorics resulted in US dollar weakened.

Yet, it is unlikely for the euro to hold on the gains for long-term as headlines directed differently after a poor output from the European macro data. Despite the weakened outlook from the PPI data from Germany and PMI of Eurozone give a steady trend in medium- to long-term while analysts anticipate Fed rate hike and suggest a hawkish outlook in the future.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:18 pm

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2018



The British pound major pair is trading in a range-bound at 1.285 at a similar level for the week after Sterling traders had a rest from busy buying schedule who are hopeful of Brexit and selling short on a bearish Brexit situation. Exiting the European Union continues to be a concern for both Sterling investors and Prime Minister Theresa to strengthen the draft for no Brexit deal with her own party who have lost confidence in her office with risks continues to be high with the possibility for the House of Commons to reject the present Brexit offering despite the Prime ministerís efforts that could push the major responsibilities on the works.

Investors are now waiting for the upcoming EU Brexit Summit as traders expected to receive the Brexit plan positively. If there is no confidence vote and the prime minister will be able to keep the position, a no Brexit deal can be avoided. On Tuesday, a speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is expected regarding the British parliament on the latest Inflation report hearings which would have the influence to support the dovish sentiment of the central bank. In the meantime, traders can take a rest from the Brexit worries.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:04 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2018



The euro major par declined abruptly during the US session and reached a fresh new low at 1.1359. The greenback has strengthened across the market in the last hours of trading especially equity in Wall Street paired against yen and euro and consolidated losses due to a bearish decline. Earlier, the price peaked at 1.1472, which has been the highest since November 7 but pulled back and lost momentum, resulting in a correction and lose over 100 pips. The risk-off sentiment yesterday lead the financial markets with the greenback standing strongly against the common currency as well as other main competitors

The decline is not just about the risk-off sentiment with the euro which also had its weakness that was primarily because of the tension between EU Commission and Italy on the 2019 budget. Moreover, the rhetoric by ECBís Weidmann saying that policy normalization may take a long time.

This adds high bearish pressure on the common currency with concerns on the possible sanction for the Italian government from EU being lenient to France on budget concerns. Italy pointed out that growing out may lead to an economic slowdown that may affect the whole of Europe.

How the EU reacted may add a bearish pressure to the euro if it turns out against Italy, that could add political tension and reach new highs. However, the yields differential may decline abruptly, raising again the euro to yesterdayís high of 1.1472 if the EU becomes more dovish. As for the headlines, there is no data to be released from the Eurozone but existing homes sales data and core durable goods from the US are scheduled today, as well as the weekly crude oil inventory.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:24 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2018



The euro major is moving steadily upward higher than the 1.14 during the Asian session as the sentiment on the common currency shifted by the Brexit optimism and general weakness of the US dollar as markets prepare for the Markit preliminary of November PMI scheduled later from the EU and the US. The euro gained early bids amid thinned market due to holidays. The Asian market supports the Brexit declaration as talked about by the UK and the European Commission for the night that lays out trade relationship prior to the Brexit summer this Sunday.

The weakened US dollar across the market amid trading concerns of the Fed may tighten and slowed down the pace but keeps the currency afloat. Moreover, the euro supported the ECB minutes that showed the central bank pursuing the QE easing program in December in the background of sluggish Eurozone economic growth. On the headlines, the Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMI reports will boost and Italian budget concern will still have an influence over the euro in the next few days.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:33 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 26, 2018



The euro is facing various problems including political problems and negative economic data as greenback gains momentum which causes the price movement to be bearishly followed by a weaker Eurozone PMI data and decline from 1.14 to 1.1345. The trading session closed this week with chances to end the latest bullish momentum as price closes lower than the 20-day SMA in favor of the common currency. Various trading factors continue to put pressure on the pair, reaching a 10-day low of 1.1326 during the early Asian session signaled by the drop in Friday to be the sin in ending Euroís latest recovery rally.

The pair continues to trade range bound close to the weekly lows. Losses during the Friday session can be recovered if the spread between the Italian 10-year government bond yield and its US counterpart continues to minimize. The European Commission promoted an excessive deficit procedure against Italy after the country changed the budget proposals. Concerns on the Italian budget remains to be the main attention of investors amid the minor reduction on budget plans. On the other hand, the greenback resumes having a positive price flow as a boost in equities are anticipated to get better on holidays.

On the fundamentals, there are no major reports from the US that could have a big impact on European markets from ECB President Draghi but releases from eurozone including the German Ifo business climate, German business expectations, and current assessment data, as well as, speeches from ECB President Draghi, Praet, Coeure & Nowotny are likely to affect trading.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:44 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2018



Traders reacted as shown on the sharp price reversal of the euro major pair after the dovish rhetorics of the Fed chair Jerome Powell. The rebound was influenced by the decline in the US Treasury yields after the speech of Powell saying interest rates are just lower than the neutral which may translate as the rate hike cycle will almost end.

The chances to postpone the Fed rate hike in 2019 increases sharply which resulted in a decline of the greenback across the market in the core PCE comes out lower than anticipated. In the second half of the day, the marketís attention will be on the release of Fed minutes. On the technical aspect, the euro major pair added a bullish trend outside the candle given the intraday high and price movement on Tuesday. A bullish reversal would confirm if everything turns out positive and needed to close higher than 1.1388. The short-term trades are also seen to be on a bullish trend but traders remain heedful since the price movement today will rely on the data and it isnít new to trades for any unforeseen events.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:23 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 3, 2018



The euro major pair is trading close to a fresh midline at 1.1340 during the Monday session after the momentum of risk appetite after the G20 summit over the weekend that allows the broad recovery after the US and China put on hold the tariff increase for another three months as they come to an agreement again. Meanwhile, Italy has been open to negotiating budget plans which can be an obstacle for the euro bulls.

Over the weekend, Italyís Prime Minister Conte and European Commissionís Jean-Claude Juncker discussed the deal between Italy and the EU while investors are still uncertain about the deficit spending of Italy and growth forecast until solid data has come out. On the headlines, traders should look out for the Eurozone PMI for the month of November while a drop of the German PMI is anticipated right before it.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:48 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 7, 2018



The movement of the global trades has affected the US dollar being the safe haven and added downward pressure on the euro major pair. Recent headlines about the arrest of top executive and add worries about the US-China relation that reduces appetite for riskier assets on Thursday. The dollar didnít gain a leverage on the early uptrend but was instead brought down by the negative US employment report, failing to meet the expected figure. It seems that the USD bulls wasnít swayed as much with optimistic US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data with its sudden uprise.

Moreover, the shift in the US Treasury bond yield curve that signals potential recession that adds pressure to the dollar and adds momentum to the pairís intraday positive momentum. The price rose higher than 1.1400 handle, close to the weekly high on Tuesday. It has been moving steadily and oscillating in a narrow trading band during the Asian session. Now, investors are monitoring the US NFP monthly jobs reports that could drive a significant momentum today. Yet, trades still have to be heedful with nearing OMC monetary policy decision in the latter days of the month. Thus, there are less expectations for the day and resume its trading range-bound in a broader trading range.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:56 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 10, 2018



The US dollar dropped below Friday session that has further lower by the unexpected monthly jobs report and shows the economy gained only 155,000 new jobs in November. Dovish comments by the Fed governor Lael Brainard and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard support the comments of the postponement of the Fed rate hike cycle in 2019. Selling greenback has boosted the economy over signs of weaker economic growth in the eurozone and pushed for a steady ascent of the euro major pair, ending the week with optimism, just higher than 1.1400 handle. Another report of the third quarter GDP revision shown an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent, slightly lower than the forecast of 1.7 percent. Nevertheless, this had a few impacts on sales.

Reports on China import and export growth figure published over the weekend that instilled fears of global growth slowdown and chances to postpone the Fed rate hike in 2019. Moreover, worsening trade tension between the US and China, as well as the arrest of top Chinese executive in Canada, has added weight to the sentiment of investors and cap the rally despite important economic reports from the euro or the US. The dollar sell-off will probably continue until the European market hours given the dovish turn of Fed expectation that is favorable for US dollar denominated global currencies in depreciating exchange rate.

Both of the US and European markets are subdued but we can anticipate for the release of job openings reports to be hawkish that could boost the US greenback broad-based market sentiment. On a technical aspect, the pair was able to clear a significant descending resistance trend line and a part of the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart was established.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:45 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 11, 2018



The euro major pair induced a bearish outside reversal on Monday and was not successful to breakthrough the symmetrical triangle on another Brexit uncertainty. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May postponed the vote on the exit deal which was already anticipated. The added pressure pushed the British currency since April last year and adds pressure to the risky assets resulted in picking up momentum to the safe haven bidding of the US dollar in the broad market. Furthermore, the possibility of a hard Brexit to continue in the past 24 hours. Hence, risky assets may gain more pressure at least until the uncertainty of Brexit was removed. Euro was also pushed down in the broad market yesterday as French President Macron announced economic emergency regarding the yellow vest protests.

The spread between the US 10-year yield and its German counterpart was 260 basis points, which was the lowest level since October 1. On a technical aspect, the sudden overnight retracement resulted in a short-term bullish breakout that may lead to a fake-out. The weakness lower than the area of 1.1350-45, it strengthens the possibility of a breakout and hastens the movement towards another ascending trend-line support. A continuous weakened movement will push the pair in returning to the yearly lows of 1.1215. On the other hand, a breakout in the solid resistance will likely move the pair towards the 1.1500 level.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:45 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2018



The euro major pair is trading within a range after the sudden drop to the overnight lows at 1.1400 below the middle of 1.13. The US dollar reversed the majority of its early losses following the release of the core PPI data which is one of the main factors to influence the overnight decline of the pair. The currency was further pushed lower bu the Italian finance minister Giovanni Triaís rhetorics over the fixed budget of Italy within the European Commission. Yet, the pair has gotten steady caused by the positivity of the Sino-US session trade talk and reaches close to the previous low.

The US President Donald Trump has said Reuters would get involved if these will support the trade deal with China. Moreover, further negotiations are already taking place via the phone but if necessary, he is willing to meet with President Xi Jinping once again. Consequently, the US dollar weakened as a safe haven in Asia the puts a stop to yesterdayís sharp decline.

On the headlines, the European markets anticipate for the release of the Industrial production data while on the US, the Core CPI & Crude Oil Inventories data are scheduled today. The price action will be highly affected by the ongoing political issues in Europe and US macro data, which will highly likely bring in volatility in the market. Considering the technical perspective, calm bidding was seen during the Asian session after the Nov 13 and 28 lows yesterday. Meanwhile, the rising trend line resulted in a deeper sell-off and a bullish reversal is established when the price goes above the 55-day moving average.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Post  Obasi FXMart on Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:17 pm

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 17, 2018



The euro major pair had a reduction triangle breakdown on Friday after the rise of global growth fears, resulting for traders to shift to equities to minimize risks. The pair is currently trading in the flat as investors are looking forward to FOMC as guidance.

Traders continue to draw bids, sending the euro major pair at as lower rate towards the latest low of 1.1215 if the global equities continue to be the solution amid the rising uncertainty of growth internationally. On Friday, weak economic data from China has awakened fears for a global economic slowdown and lessens investorís appetite for riskier assets. People looking for safety has strengthened the US dollar as a safe-haven that increases the dollar by 1 and a half year high, inducing a strong selling of the EUR/USD pair. The common currency was further dampened by the weakened German and eurozone PMI in December, indicating a prominent slow down from both manufacturing and services. These data confirmed the dovish sentiment of ECB on Thursday and pushed traders to lessen expectation for next yearís rate hike. It further pushes the common currency to break through lower than 1.13.

Yet, the mixed result from the US macro calendar resulted to a decline of both Industrial/Manufacturing production data and PMI despite the retail sales data, prompting sluggish business growth and reduces prospect for fed rate hike in 2019, limiting the euro decline and triggers a rebound from below and hover above 1.13 as market closed for the week. Meanwhile, the broad-based market for the dollar pushes the euro lower. It was able to trade flat during the Asian session starting the trading session for the week. Currently, the euro major pair is trading flat at 1.1307 with an apparent increase of 0.015 on the day. Meanwhile, the pair is showing a positive trend while the upside continues to be restricted by the FOMC update being the major event for the week, which will influence the future trading of the dollar.

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